Oil price steadied after the Organization of the Production Export Countries released its monthly report, with Brent crude maintaining its earlier gains, trading above $70 a barrel on Thursday.
OPEC said on Wednesday that Kazakhstan led a sizeable jump in February crude output by the wider OPEC+, highlighting a challenge for the producer group in enforcing adherence to agreed output targets.
In its monthly report for March 2025, OPEC+, which includes OPEC plus Russia and other allies, in February raised output by 363,000 barrels per day to 41.01 million bpd, led by Kazakhstan.
The hike is more than twice as much as a scheduled 138,000 bpd rise in OPEC+ output starting in April as the group phases out its most recent layer of output cuts. The plan for higher output, as well as concern about trade tariffs, have put downward pressure on oil prices.
Kazakhstan, the world’s largest landlocked country, has been producing at a record high, and well above its OPEC+ quota, as U.S. oil major Chevron.
According to the OPEC data, which it compiles from secondary sources, Kazakhstan produced 1.767 million bpd of crude in February, up from 1.570 million bpd in January. Kazakhstan’s OPEC+ quota is 1.468 million bpd.
The OPEC data also showed some other OPEC+ nations such as the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria and Gabon pumping above their quotas, but by far smaller amounts.
Nigeria has a 1.5 million barrels per day OPEC+ quota. OPEC’s secondary sources hinted that the country’s output went a little above 1.5mb/d, 1,526mb/d in January to 1,560mb/d in February.
A Reuters report quoting industry sources, said that record output from Kazakhstan helped sway OPEC+’s decision to proceed with the April hike.
Kazakh officials, speaking at a briefing on Friday, pledged to cut output in March, April and May.
Also in the report, OPEC kept its forecasts for the growth in world oil demand steady.
OPEC expects world oil demand to rise by 1.45 million bpd in 2025 and by 1.43 million bpd in 2026. Both forecasts were unchanged from last month.
In the report, OPEC said it expected the world economy to take new trade policies in its stride.
President Donald Trump’s increased tariffs on all U.S. steel and aluminum imports took effect on Wednesday, stepping up a campaign to reorder global trade in favour of the U.S.
“Trade concerns are expected to contribute to volatility as trade policies continue to be unveiled. However, the global economy is expected to adjust,” OPEC said in the report.
OPEC’s view on oil demand is relatively high in the industry and, unlike forecasters such as the International Energy Agency, it does not see demand reaching a peak.
The IEA sees 2025 demand growth at 1.1 million bpd, less than OPEC, although the gap between them on 2025 is far less than it was for 2024 when the split reached a record high driven by differences over the pace of the energy transition.
